DHS has published its long-term care market study, which uses a retrospective analysis to project future trends for Wisconsin’s long-term care sector. Baker Tilly was commissioned for the study.

See the full study here.

The study found that, as of 2022, Wisconsin has 6,180 excess nursing home beds. Baker Tilly used recent trends in bed de-licensures, along with assumptions of a continued decline in utilization due to changing consumer preferences of where they receive services for long-term care, shifting of long-term care to alternative settings such as assisted living and at-home, and closures and consolidations and downsizing of nursing homes, to conclude that by 2030, Wisconsin will have about 4,900 excess nursing home beds.

Baker Tilly considered 4 scenarios:

1. Utilization decreases consistent with 2017-22 declines, and NH bed supply decreased at the same rate as 2017 and 2022.
   1.  Baker Tilly concluded that this scenario is the most likely.
2. Utilization remains stable and NH supply decreased at same rate as 2017 to 2022.
3. Utilization remains stable and no reduction in NH supply from 2022 levels.
4. Utilization decreases consistent with 2017-22, and no reduction in NH bed supply from 2022 levels.

Based on Baker Tilly’s projections of future demand and availability, Baker Tilly’s report included several recommendations to ensure accessibility into the future. Ideas included, among others: working to streamline the guardianship process to create smoother transfers; planning for complex patient populations to increase access opportunities; additional workforce considerations, including embracing technology and creating incentives; expanding HCBS accessibility; and additional scrutiny of MCOs. The study also reviews workforce and access initiatives that other states have implemented.

On the subject of Wisconsin’s nursing home bed moratorium, the Baker Tilly report recommending not eliminating the moratorium. The report does suggest allowing additional transactional opportunities so nursing home beds can be acquired in areas where there is a demand for more beds.

WHCA/WiCAL will continue to review this document and work with DHS and other decision makers on how to ensure LTC access into the future.